U.S. gas prices surged 11% in one week as the conflict in the Middle East escalated dramatically, driving crude oil prices sharply higher and disrupting global energy supplies.
The national average price for regular unleaded gasoline reached $3.32 per gallon by March 6, 2026, according to data from AAA. This marked an increase of approximately 34 cents from the prior week, equating to an 11.4% jump from levels around $2.98 per gallon. The rise erased earlier gains in lower prices during President Trump’s second term and pushed retail prices to their highest point since August or September 2024.
The escalation began with joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets starting around February 28, 2026. These actions targeted Iranian infrastructure and leadership, including the reported killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran responded with missile attacks on Israel, U.S. military bases in the region, and other locations across the Gulf. Retaliatory strikes widened the conflict to include Lebanon, with Israeli forces pounding targets and Iranian-backed groups engaging further.
Oil markets reacted immediately. Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed from around $70-71 per barrel in late February to over $90 per barrel by early March. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, settled at $90.90 on March 6, recording a 35.6% weekly gain in some sessions—the largest since early 2022. Crude futures rallied 27% in one week in early March, with daily jumps exceeding 12% at peaks.
The primary driver was disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway carries about 20% of global oil and a similar share of liquefied natural gas. Key developments included:
- Iran threatened to close or restrict passage, with its Revolutionary Guards stating
“ships attempting transit would face attack.”
- Reports confirmed at least three tankers damaged in the Gulf.
- Major shippers diverted routes or halted movements, leaving around 150 vessels anchored.
- Traffic through the strait halted or slowed significantly, stranding millions of barrels of crude.
Additional supply issues compounded the problem:
- Iraq reduced output by 1.5 million barrels per day due to storage constraints and export limitations.
- Production stoppages occurred in Qatar, Israel’s gas fields, and Iraq’s Kurdistan region.
- Saudi refineries faced disruptions from regional attacks.These events removed substantial volumes from markets at a time when seasonal factors already pressured prices.
Refiners in the U.S. transitioned to summer-blend gasoline during this period. Summer blends include additives to reduce evaporation in heat and cost more to produce. Demand typically rises with spring travel. Analysts from GasBuddy and AAA noted this seasonal shift contributed to baseline increases before the conflict intensified. The geopolitical shock amplified the effect.
Patrick De Haan from GasBuddy tracked one of the largest single-day jumps since March 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine destabilized markets. He projected short-term averages reaching $3.30 to $3.35 per gallon, though prolonged disruption could push higher. A $5 per barrel crude increase typically translates to about 12 cents per gallon at the pump, but panic buying and refinery constraints accelerated pass-through.
The price surge hit consumers directly. Drivers in states like Pennsylvania saw averages climb from $3.127 to $3.297 in one week. National figures moved from $2.983 one week prior to $3.251 by March 5, then to $3.32 by March 6. Higher fuel costs raised transportation expenses for goods, increasing prices for food, deliveries, and services. Businesses faced elevated diesel costs, squeezing margins amid existing economic pressures.
Global markets felt the impact:
- Stock indices in the U.S., Europe, and Asia declined as investors assessed inflation risks.
- Natural gas prices rose, particularly in Europe and Asia, reliant on Gulf LNG.
- Central bank policies faced complications due to the threat of sustained high energy costs fueling broader inflation.
President Trump addressed the rising prices during the escalation.
He stated he had no concern about the increases, emphasizing the military campaign’s priority over temporary pump price rises.
He indicated prices would drop rapidly once resolved and described the current rise as limited.
The administration monitored the situation, with some reports mentioning plans to stabilize fuel costs, though details remained limited.
The conflict exposed vulnerabilities in global energy dependence on the Middle East. Past events, like the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, showed how supply shocks drive prices to extremes—U.S. gasoline hit near $5 per gallon then with crude over $130. Current levels stayed below that, but analysts warned of $100 oil if the Strait of Hormuz closed for weeks or production suffered major hits.
U.S. actions under Trump aimed to address long-standing threats from Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence. The strikes followed years of tension, including prior attacks and proxy conflicts. Outcomes included degraded Iranian capabilities, but at the cost of immediate energy market turmoil.
Americans now pay more at the pump due to these events. The 11% weekly increase reflects direct ties between Middle East stability and U.S. household budgets.
Crude oil prices and disrupted shipments from the Strait of Hormuz will continue to dictate gas prices until the conflict de-escalates or alternative supplies offset the losses.
