Iran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and declared the waterway closed, forcing a sharp surge in global oil prices and pushing U.S. gasoline above $3 per gallon. The maritime aggression occurred over the weekend of February 28 to March 1, 2026, and persisted into early March, with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) explicitly threatening to set ablaze any ship attempting to pass through the strait.
The IRGC senior adviser Ebrahim Jabari stated on March 2:
“the strait was closed and that Revolutionary Guard and navy forces would attack and burn vessels trying to transit.”
Iranian state media carried the warning directly. Satellite tracking from Kpler and other firms showed tanker traffic dropping to near zero, with ships anchoring outside the passage or rerouting entirely. At least three vessels faced attacks from projectiles or drones in the area, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations reports. Electronic jamming disrupted navigation systems on multiple ships, adding to the chaos and deterring transit.
The Strait of Hormuz serves as the exit point for about 20% of daily global oil consumption and a large share of liquefied natural gas. Iran holds the northern shoreline, giving it direct control over movements. By targeting shipping and issuing burn threats, Iran acted as the clear aggressor in this phase of the crisis, aiming to choke global energy flows in retaliation for prior U.S. and Israeli military action.
U.S. and Israeli strikes under Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, 2026:
- Targeted Iranian military installations and nuclear facilities.
- Resulted in the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
- Addressed long-standing threats to protect U.S. national security.
Oil markets responded to Iran’s closure and attacks:
- Brent crude surged 6-9% initially, climbing toward $79-83 by March 3-4.
- WTI crude tracked closely, reflecting identical disruption concerns.
- Risk premiums of $14-18 per barrel were estimated by Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan.
U.S. gasoline prices crossed the $3 per gallon national average on March 2, according to OPIS and AAA data. The average reached about $3.11 by March 3 in some tracking, with jumps of 10-12 cents overnight in places—the largest single-day increase since 2022. Forecasts pointed to $3.25 or higher soon, driven by the oil spike combined with the ongoing switch to costlier summer-grade fuel. Pump prices in multiple states hit $3.19 or above as drivers filled up amid spreading news coverage.
President Donald Trump addressed the market impact head-on. He warned that without deescalation, oil prices could rise by $10-20 per barrel or more, a projection analysts supported given the strait’s role in supply.
“the conflict with Iran could continue for four to five weeks but stressed U.S. forces’ readiness for extended operations.”
To counter the price pressure from Iran’s aggression, he announced U.S. provision of insurance guarantees and naval escorts for tankers seeking to transit the strait. These measures aimed to restore safe passage, reduce the risk premium in contracts, and limit damage to American consumers and the broader economy.
The timeline shows Iran’s actions as the direct cause of the current energy disruption. The U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28 targeted specific threats; Iran’s response expanded to indiscriminate maritime attacks and a declared closure, halting commercial flows and driving prices higher. Iran also launched drone and missile strikes on regional oil facilities, including attempts on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, which shut temporarily for safety.
Global implications remain severe while the strait stays restricted. European natural gas futures rose in parallel due to LNG shipment fears from the Gulf. Stock markets saw temporary drops on March 2 as higher energy costs threatened inflation and growth. Asian economies, dependent on Gulf imports, face the heaviest exposure. OPEC+ producers like Saudi Arabia lose revenue from blocked exports unless offsets emerge.
Trump’s decisive leadership stands out in the response. By committing naval protection and insurance support, the administration moved quickly to stabilize markets and shield U.S. drivers from extreme spikes ahead of key political periods. The strikes themselves demonstrated resolve against a regime that posed clear dangers; Iran’s subsequent aggression only confirmed the need for firm action to restore security in the region.
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on shipping vessels represent blatant aggression that threatens global energy security and demands continued strong measures to reopen the vital waterway.
